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The climate prediction with a year in advance through the bultó's index for havana city, Cuba

Author: 
Jaime Wilfrido Aldaz Cárdenas, Ricardo Oses Rodríguez, Rigoberto Fimia Duarte, Jorge Jagger Segura Ochoa, Nancy Guadalupe Aldaz Cárdenas, Jenny Janeth Segura Ochoa and Ricardo Fundora García
Subject Area: 
Life Sciences
Abstract: 

The objective of this work is directed to model the Climatic Bultó Index for Havana city with a year of advance. This index is also modeled independent in the period 2001, month 1, until the year 2005, month 5. In total there are 52 cases, from which two models are obtained, one for the index with short term parameters, (Lag 1, Lag 4) like predictor and another model of the index with parameters of one year of advance (lag 12, lag 16). The first model explains 84.6 variance % with a standard error that can not be measure; the variables that influence in the modeling of the Index are the index in the previous month, and the index fourth months behind, all the variables were significant to 99%, the tendency was not significant. The second model uses the lag 12, the lag 14 and the Lag 10, then we can forecast the Bultó Index with a year of advance, even the Lag 10 is not statistically significant we maintain this parameter in the model because it helps to improve the variance in the model. It was used the Regressive Objective Regression, with the help of the statistical package of Social Sciences (SPSS) Version 13. The pattern of Regressive Objective Regression with a year in advance presents good results with a high correlation (R= 96.1 %) and errors not determined, charts and graphics of the real values are shown and predicted for 2006. The methodology used can prevent the episodes of sickness of persons with sufficient time of advance.

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