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Assessment of future temperature change scenario by statistical downscaling model (canesm2) in abaya chamo sub basin, Ethiopia

Author: 
Ayele Elias Gebeyehu, Zhao Chunju, Zhou Yihong and Zhongyong Yang
Subject Area: 
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Abstract: 

Temperature change isn’t a new phenomenon in the world history. In developing countries like Ethiopia, climate hazards are high due to low adaptation capability. This study predicts future temperature change scenario by using statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) General Circulation Model (GCM) output. For SDSM calibration and validation, the baseline period was divided into two: 1988-2003 and 2004-2016 respectively. The validation and calibration result of coefficient of determination for all meteorological stations are between 0.53-0.83 and 0.55-0.86 for maximum temperature and minimum temperature respectively. This result showed that the SDSM model was performed well. Maximum temperature downscaled by RCP-2.6, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 scenario showed an increasing projection in all months. The mean monthly increasing temperature up to the end of 2099 will be from 0.3oC to 3.4oC. Minimum temperature downscaled by RCP-2.6 and RCP-8.5 scenario showed a decreasing projection in March and April but by RCP-4.5 decreasing in April. The increase in temperature due to climate change might have a negative impact on the future natural resources of the study area.

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