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A re-examination of the relationship between export instability and economic growth

Author: 
Dr. Havvanur Feyza ERDEM
Subject Area: 
Social Sciences and Humanities
Abstract: 

The theoretical and empirical macroeconomic literature has focused on three main questions about the relationship between export instability and economic growth for developed and developing countries. One of them implies that a higher degree of export instability negatively affects economic growth. Second one attracts attention if export instability is transmitted to the rest of economy, this would be reflected by a high degree of economic instability. According to the third one, export instability is detrimental per se to economic growth. In this context, the purpose of this study is to re-examine the relationship between export instability and economic growth for the period of 2003-2017 (quarterly) of Turkish economy. In this study, Kalman Filter Technique wasapplied to obtain export instability series. The econometric framework is explained as follows: Optimal Box-Jenkins model for export variable firstly was statistically estimated. Then, export instability series were obtainedby using Kalman Filter Technique under optimal Box-Jenkins model. Finally, the probable relationships between export instability and economic growth were investigated by using Granger Causality Analysis. According to the results of this study, there are no relationship between export instability and economic growth for Turkish economy in short-term.

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