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Analyze of the global climate change scale with box-jenkins method: ankara/Turkey

Author: 
Simge AKŞİT and Beril S. AKIN
Subject Area: 
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Abstract: 

Global climate change is a situation caused by natural causes and human activities. There is a balance between the light coming from Sun and beam of light reverberated from Earth’s surface to the atmosphere. The main reason for global climate change is that the current balance is not protected due to external factors. The aim of this research is to determine the rate of global climate change on Ankara. In this study, the stationary temporal climate series of temperature, precipitation and evaporation series for Ankara were analyzed using by Box-Jenkins method. The analysis completed using temperature, precipitation and evaporation data for Ankara, which are taken from Meteorology General Directorate, until 2017. There is a relation between temperature, precipitation, evaporation data, and global climate change trends. Using by Box-Jenkins method, future predictions are made. For temperature data, predictions include the next 15 years data (2018-2033). 15 years predictions are made for evaporation data (2018-2033). And for precipitation data, predictions include just 5 years period, that is because of previous data of precipitation includes 14 years process. According to Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) method, the findings indicated as, a decrease of 0.6 0C in temperature, an increase of 21.54 mm in evaporation and a decrease of 19.91 mm in precipitation have been predicted. According to these analyses, the Ankara city will be affected by global warming and there will be a drought climate for the feature.

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