Stability analysis of chickpea export markets of India – Markov chain approach

Chickpea is an important pulse crop of India which plays an important role in meeting the domestic and export demands. India, despite being the world’s largest producer of chickpea it imports a considerable amount to meet the domestic requirement. The present level of export is not consistent and exhibits high variations in volume and revenue earnings because of frequent ban on the export by the country. In this paper, the dynamics of changes have been measured in the export of chickpea from India to different export markets employing the Markov-chain model. The results have shown ‘other countries’ category as the stable destination for our Indian chickpea exports. The other traditional importing countries such as Algeria, Pakistan, UAE, Saudi Arab, Sri Lanka and Turkey indicated unstable export share to these markets. Projected export shares of Indian chickpea to major importing countries revealed that the export share of Indian chickpea is predicted to be highest (28.8%) to Pakistan.